临床外科杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 1017-1021.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-6483.20260096

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

肝癌患者经肝动脉化疗栓塞术后神经系统并发症风险预测模型的建立

孙雅轩 徐嘉忆 冉恒泉 王义刚 汪俊州 栗粟;     

  1. 617000 四川攀枝花,攀枝花市中心医院肝胆外科(孙雅轩、冉恒泉、王义刚、汪俊州、栗粟),病理科(徐嘉忆)
  • 收稿日期:2026-01-31 出版日期:2026-09-20 发布日期:2026-09-20

Establishment of a risk prediction model for neurological complications after transarterial chemoembolization in patients with liver cancer

SUN Yaxuan,XU Jiayi,RAN Hengquan,WANG Yigang,WANG Junzhou,LI Su   

  1. *Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Panzhihua Central Hospital, Panzhihua 617000, China
  • Received:2026-01-31 Online:2026-09-20 Published:2026-09-20

摘要: 目的 探讨肝癌病人经肝动脉化疗栓塞(TACE)术后神经系统并发症的危险因素,构建并验证预测模型。方法 2022年1月~2025年9月初次行TACE治疗的肝癌病人300例,根据术后30天内是否发生神经系统并发症分为并发症组(51例)与非并发症组(249例)。采用Logistic回归筛选独立影响因素,构建列线图模型,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线及决策曲线(DCA)评估模型效能。结果 TACE术后神经系统并发症发生率为17.00%。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,美国东部肿瘤协作组(ECOG)评分、手术时间、甲胎蛋白(AFP)、异常凝血酶原(DCP)及C反应蛋白(CRP)为肝癌病人TACE术后神经系统并发症的独立危险因素,血小板计数为其保护因素(P<0.05)。基于上述6项指标构建的列线图模型预测肝癌病人TACE术后神经系统并发症的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.906(95%CI:0.865~0.947),校准曲线拟合良好(Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P=0.691),决策曲线显示,模型在0.05~0.90阈值概率范围内具有良好临床净获益。结论 ECOG评分、手术时间、AFP、DCP、CRP及血小板计数是肝癌病人TACE术后神经系统并发症的影响因素,基于此构建的列线图模型预测效能良好,具备临床实用性,可用于高危病人筛选。

关键词: 肝癌; 经肝动脉化疗栓塞术; 神经系统并发症; 影响因素

Abstract: Objective This study aimed to explore the risk factors for neurological complications in patients with liver cancer after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), and to construct and validate a predictive model.Methods A total of 300 patients with liver cancer who underwent TACE treatment for the first time from January 2022 to September 2025 were selected.They were divided into the complication group (51 cases) and the non-complication group (249 cases) based on whether neurological complications occurred within 30 days after the operation.Logistic regression was used to screen independent influencing factors, a nomogram model was constructed, and the model's efficacy was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve (DCA).Results The incidence of neurological complications after TACE was 17.00%.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score, operation time, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), abnormal prothrombin (DCP), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were independent risk factors, while platelet count was a protective factor (P<0.05).The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model based on these 6 indicators was 0.906 (95%CI: 0.865-0.947), the calibration curve fitted well (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.691), and the decision curve showed that the model had good clinical net benefit within the probability range of 0.05-0.90.Conclusion ECOG score, operation time, AFP, DCP, CRP, and platelet count are the key influencing factors for neurological complications in patients with liver cancer after TACE.The constructed nomogram model has good predictive efficacy and clinical practicability, and can be used for the screening of high-risk patients.

Key words: liver cancer; transarterial chemoembolization; neurological complications; influencing factors

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