关键词: 动脉硬化闭塞症, 介入治疗, 复发, 预测模型

Abstract: Objective To explore the risk factors of relapse in patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans after interventional therapy,and to construct a recurrence risk prediction model based on the risk factors.Methods Eighty patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans were selected as the research subjects and all were admitted to our hospital from January 2021 to January 2023.All the research subjects were followed up for one year after interventional therapy.According to the follow-up results,they were divided into the recurrence group and the non-recurrence group.The clinical data and biochemical indicators of the two groups of patients were collected,the risk factors were screened,a nomogram model of recurrence risk was constructed based on the risk factors and verified.Results Age ≥60 years old,smoking history,hypertension,diabetes,complete occlusive lesions,and hs-CRP≥8.00 mg/L are all risk factors affecting the recurrence of patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans after interventional therapy (P<0.05).The area under the ROC curve (AUC),95% confidence interval (CI),sensitivity and specificity of the nomogram risk model for predicting recurrence in patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans after interventional therapy were 0.873,0.654-0.987,96.40% and 74.50% respectively (P<0.05),indicating that the predictive efficacy of this model was good.The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.832 (95%CI 0.787-0.991).Both the predicted values and the actual predicted values were near the ideal curve.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit curve test χ²=2.641,P=0.659.Conclusion The nomogram model constructed based on six risk factors,namely age ≥60 years old,smoking history,hypertension,diabetes,complete occlusive lesions,and hs-CRP≥8.00 mg/L,has a good predictive efficacy for the recurrence risk of patients with arteriosclerosis obliterans after interventional therapy.

Key words: arteriosclerotic obliterans, interventional therapy, recurrence, prediction model