关键词: 胆囊癌, 预后模型, 列线图, 危险因素, SEER

Abstract: Objective To construct a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with gallbladder cancer (GBC).Methods The clinicopathological data of GBC patients were extracted from the SEER database,and the independent prognostic factors of GBC patients were analyzed by Cox regression,and a nomogram was constructed.Finally,the column diagrams in the training queue and validation queue are verified.Results Age,T stage,M stage,histological grade,radiotherapy,surgery and tumor size were independent prognostic factors in GBC patients,and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05).In the training cohort,the C index was 0.735 (95%CI=0.721~0.749),and the AUC values at 1,3 and 5 years were 0.821,0.820 and 0.833,respectively.In the verification group,the C index was 0.733 (95%CI=0.711~0.755),and the AUC values for 1,3 and 5 years were 0.816,0.807 and 0.827,respectively.The calibration curve shows that the predicted values of the nomogram are in good agreement with the observed values.The decision curve shows that the nomogram model has better prediction ability than TNM staging system.Conclusion The constructed dynamic prognosis nomogram of GBC patients has high accuracy and reliability.

Key words: gallbladder carcinoma, prognostic model, nomograph, risk factors, SEER