临床外科杂志 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 182-185.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-6483.2022.02.025

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

肝内胆管结石病人肝切除术后感染性并发症风险预测模型的构建及验证

  

  1. 430030 武汉,华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院肝脏外科(官艳),健康管理中心(何林钰);华中科技大学同济医学院(罗茵)
  • 收稿日期:2021-11-02 接受日期:2021-11-02 出版日期:2022-02-20 发布日期:2022-02-20
  • 通讯作者: 何林钰,Email:hh.emily@qq.com

Construction and validation of risk prediction model for infectious complications after hepatectomy in patients with intrahepatic bile duct stones

  1. *Hepatic Surgery Center,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430030, China
  • Received:2021-11-02 Accepted:2021-11-02 Online:2022-02-20 Published:2022-02-20

摘要: 目的 探讨肝内胆管结石病人肝切除术后感染性并发症发生的相关危险因素。 方法 行肝切除术的肝内胆管结石病人592例,根据术后是否发生感染性并发症分为感染组和未感染组。对可能影响术后感染性并发症发生的危险因素进行单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析,同时建立列线图可视化预测模型,采用C-index值评价模型的预测效能。 结果 感染并发症发生率为16.55%;Logistic回归分析显示,术前血清白蛋白(Alb)水平、合并胆汁性肝硬化、手术距离急性胆管炎控制时间间隔、胆肠吻合术、快速康复外科护理(术前饮食控制、术前肠道准备、术中管理)是肝内胆管结石病人肝切除术后感染性并发症发生的预测因子;基于上述5个危险因素构建的列线图,训练集C-index为0.825(95%CI 0.321~1.329),Hosmer-Lemeshow偏差度检测χ2=8.773(P>0.05);验证集的C-index值为0.813(95%CI 0.284~1.342),Hosmer-Lemeshow偏差度检测χ2=8.931(P>0.05)。结论 列线图预测模型能够有效预测肝内胆管结石病人肝切除术后感染性并发症发生风险;快速康复外科护理是肝内胆管结石行肝切除术后护理的重要组成部分,其实施效果与术后感染性并发症发生风险密切相关。

关键词: 肝内胆管结石, 肝切除, 术后感染性并发症, 危险因素, 列线图

Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors of infectious complications after hepatectomy in patients with intrahepatic bile duct stones.Methods The clinical data of 592 patients with intrahepatic bile duct stones who underwent hepatectomy were collected.According to whether there were infectious complications after hepatectomy,the patients were divided into infected group and uninfected group.The risk factors that may affect the occurrence of postoperative infectious complications were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression.Meanwhile,a nomogram visual prediction model was established,and the prediction efficiency of the model was evaluated by c-index value.Results The incidence of infectious complications after hepatectomy was 16.55%.Logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative serum albumin(Alb) level,combined with biliary cirrhosis,operation distance from acute cholangitis control interval,cholangiojejunostomy,rapid rehabilitation Surgical Nursing(preoperative diet control,preoperative intestinal preparation Intraoperative management) was a predictor of infectious complications after hepatectomy in patients with intrahepatic bile duct stones.Based on the nomogram constructed by the above five risk factors,the training set c-index is 0.825(95%CI 0.321 ~ 1.329),and Hosmer lemeshow deviation detection χ2=8.773(P>0.05).The c-index value of the validation set was 0.813(95%CI 0.284 ~ 1.342),Hosmer lemeshow deviation detection χ2=8.931(P>0.05).Conclusion Nomogram prediction model can effectively predict the risk of infectious complications after hepatectomy in patients with intrahepatic bile duct stones.Rapid rehabilitation surgical nursing is an important part of nursing after hepatectomy for intrahepatic bile duct stones.Its implementation effect is closely related to the risk of postoperative infectious complications.

Key words: intrahepatic bile duct stones, hepatectomy, postoperative infectious complications, risk factors, nomogram

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